The International Court of Justice will hand down a landmark ruling Friday in South Africa’s case against Israel over alleged genocidal acts in Gaza.
At this stage, the ICJ is only deciding whether to impose emergency orders on Israel (“provisional measures” in the court’s jargon).
The war started on October 7 when Hamas staged an unprecedented attack on Israel that left about 1,140 people dead, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s relentless military campaign on Gaza since has left at least 25,900 dead, about 70 percent of them women, children and adolescents, according to the Hamas government’s health ministry.
“At this stage, South Africa does not need to prove that Israel is committing genocide,” Juliette McIntyre, a lecturer in international law at the University of South Australia, told AFP.
“They simply need to establish that there is a plausible risk of genocide occurring.”
Even if the court rules against Israel, “it means that there is a plausible risk of genocide. Not that there is genocide”, she said.
South Africa has asked the ICJ to impose nine orders on Israel, including to immediately suspend military activity and to enable more humanitarian access.
The court could order all nine of the orders, none of them, or even make up its own completely different orders.
“It seems likely that the Court will grant some of the requests made by South Africa,” said Cecily Rose, an assistant professor of public international law at Leiden University.
Israel argued during the hearings that a ceasefire was unrealistic as the court could only order that on one party — since Hamas is not part of the proceedings.
“The court may order a ceasefire, but more likely in my opinion is an order that Israel take all measures within its power to ensure access to adequate food, water and humanitarian assistance,” McIntyre said.
From the court’s viewpoint, the case moves onto the “merits” stage, where it will determine whether Israel is actually committing genocide in Gaza.
The key is whether Israel will abide by any potential ICJ ruling. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already hinted he does not feel bound by the court.
Regardless of Israel’s reaction, the ruling will have important “ripple effects”, McIntyre said.
If the court rules there is a “risk” of genocide, “it makes it much harder for other states to continue to support Israel… states may withdraw military or other support”.
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